Estée Lauder lowers outlook on China weakness, Israel-Hamas war risk

Estimated read time 2 min read




Nov 2, 2023

Estée Lauder Cos. lowered its full-year outlook citing continued weakness in Asia travel retail and in mainland China, as well as risks to its business from the Israel-Hamas war.

Estée Lauder

The company now expects net sales to decrease between 9% to 11% in the current quarter versus a year ago and sees diluted net earnings between 47 cents and 57 cents a share. The potential risks from disruption in Israel and the Middle East are expected to have a dilutive impact of 8 cents.

“While we had a better-than-expected first quarter, we are lowering our fiscal 2024 outlook given incremental external headwinds, namely from the slower growth in overall prestige beauty in Asia travel retail and in mainland China,” Chief Executive Officer Fabrizio Freda said in a statement. He also cited risks of disruption to the company’s business in Israel and other parts of the Middle East.

For the current fiscal year, Estée Lauder expects net sales in a range of a decrease of 2% to an increase of 1% versus the prior year and diluted earnings per common share between $2.08 to $2.35.

The owner of the MAC and Tom Ford brands has been floundering in its crucial travel retail business in Asia due to weaker-than-expected demand, leading the beauty company to lower its guidance in August to forecast a net loss and a sales decline of 10% to 12% and once again push back the recovery in its duty-free business. 

Shares dropped 13% in premarket trading on Wednesday in New York. The stock has fallen 48% for the year to date as of the close on Tuesday. The S&P 500 consumer staples index is down 7.9% for 2023 so far.


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